Effect of Mammography and modern treatment on breast cancer death

I.                   Introduction

The article “Mammograms’ Value in Cancer Fight at Issue” in the New York Times September 22, 2010 reported a new finding that mammograms are not as effective in preventing breast cancer death as they were believed to be. Mammograms detect breast cancer in the early stages. The article claimed that the advantage of early detection of breast cancer may be insignificant when compared to improved hormonal therapy and other targeted drugs.   The article includes the findings and the opinions of eight different credible persons who are involved either in the diagnosis or research regarding breast cancer.

            Mammogram screening is done for women every year with the recommendation of health officials. Screening recommendations are based on the previous research that stated mammograms reduce breast cancer deaths by 15-20 percent. The new study claims that the effect of mammograms combined with modern treatment is only 10 percent. The study data indicate that the effect of mammograms preventing breast cancer death alone could be as low as 2 percent or even 0. The new research method used real population for the first time to compare the effects of mammograms with modern treatment. The study looked at what happened in Norway before and after 1996. In 1996, Norway started to use mammograms on women between ages of 50 and 69, along with special breast cancer teams to treat all women with breast cancer. In the study, which is continuing, women are followed for a maximum of 8.9 years. The interviewed people did not dismiss the importance of mammograms for its prevention of breast cancer. They were surprised that the importance diminished since mammography had improved from decades ago. Mammography is a preventive care for breast cancer whereas modern treatment is not. Modern treatment uses improved hormonal therapy and other targeted drugs after the diagnosis of breast cancer.

 II. Original Argument

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/health/research/23mammogram.html? scp=2&sq=mammogram&st=cse

III.                Paraphrasing the argument

Premise

1. Previous studies of mammogram done decades ago found they reduce the breast cancer death rate by 15-20 percent.
2. In the new study mammogram combined with modern treatment reduced the death rate by 10 percent.
3. The study data indicated that the effect of mammogram alone could be as low as 2 percent or even zero.
4. Modern treatment decreases the breast cancer death by 8 percent.
5. Therefore mammogram screening test does not reduce breast cancer death as effectively as modern treatment.

Conclusion

The decision about whether to have the screening mammogram test may now be a close call since early detection’s benefit has been replaced by improved hormonal therapy and other targeted drugs.

IV.             Analysis

The new study which took 8.9 years to conduct used data from Norwegian women commits the fallacy hasty generalization. First, the actual data compared was only from Norway and did not compare women in other regions. The study based on the Norwegian population may or may not apply to the other populations. The sample size from Norway does not represent the rest of the world’s population of women. Small samples are less likely to contain numbers proportional to the whole population. As the sample size increases, the chances lessen that the argument will commit the fallacy of hasty generalization. In this case, it is hard to conclude that the use of mammography in early detection is not as important as the previous studies imply. To reach this conclusion, the study needs to have a larger sample size. Second, the population is not diverse enough to represent the women from all over the world. The Norwegian women may have different traits that cause breast cancer. The data that is only taken form Norwegian women does not contain enough variety to represent all women. In addition, the study is ongoing and it is hard to conclude anything about the significance of mammography in this period of time. The previous studies had more data than this study. As the experts stated, the benefits may be seen as the study progresses. Therefore, for the study not to commit hasty generalization, the sample size should include mixtures of women from different countries, and the number should be the same proportions as the population.